Barry Sober: The Year One Report Card Is In

So Barack Obama, who floated magnificently into the White House upon a beneficent cloud of historic awe and wonder only a year ago has found it necessary to step gingerly down onto real soil, where things are gritty, grimy and, well, just a little counter-historical.
The punctuation mark at the end of the new president's first year: the single most influential Democratic seat in the Senate changes over to the Republicans with the election of centerfold model Scott Brown to the patriarchal Kennedy seat in liberal stronghold Massachusetts. To many loud celebrants of the moment, the Obama legacy is already done. Stick a fork in it. Add the garnish. Serve it up. Finis.
Democrats everywhere are stunned. To Bostonians, the feeling must be akin to what they felt when their 16-0 Patriots faltered in the Super Bowl. The beer and pretzels are left to go stale.

The analysts have circled like vultures picking over the carcass of the election. The wonks are turning out the pockets, drawing astonishingly clairvoyant conclusions from the lint. But we should be careful not to over-analyze what may be a surprisingly simple post-mortem. We should be careful not to assume that the Obama election was about more than it really was.
While the election of the first president of African-American descent was a dizzying and wonderful achievement on its own merits, it coincided with a large groundswell of something else that is beginning, with the gubernatorial elections of the summer and the Massachusetts election of this week, to break through the political crust. Far beyond any principal in operation there may be one thing that will overwhelm everything else--a massive (perhaps unprecedentedly massive) wave of voter dissatisfaction.
Wonks on both sides of the aisle, from the ballistic blonde division on FOX News to the oh-so-knowing stuffed suits over at CNN, are going after one another ferociously, all claiming to hear the heartbeat of the nation--what is it that the American masses really want? Do they want less government or more? Do they want expensive guaranteed health benes or independent predatory health roulette? Do they want a socialist messianic state or an avaricious, unethical free market? Do they want dog-protected, barbed-wired, impenetrable borders or a wide open door for Mexican narcotraficantes to slip through and kill us in our sleep? After all, elections are always about the issues, right? Of course right.
When the Obama election swept the Democrats back into power, they wanted it so badly to be about the vindication of their ideals, of their pet policies, of "compassionate" government. Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi felt that their years of toil behind the Bush mast were at last being rewarded.

They were wrong.
What the latest elections have shown is that Obama won because Republicans lost. The Bush years were not good for "conservative values." The propagation of an incredibly expensive war with little or no strategic value, coupled with an almost unprecedented expansion of federal oversight that encroached on everything from how to pack your overnight bag to how to test your children, increased spending on an alarming scale. Add to the cauldron the fruits of two decades of corporate deregulation and malfeasance that allowed for the ex nihilo creation of non-existent wealth, and the whole brew was ready to blow. The Three Wise men of the Right, Rush Lowbrow, Sean Calamity and Bill Oh Really make no mention of this, or they find a way to point their middle fingers elsewhere, But the blame rests squarely on the ruling Republicans with the all-too-willing complicity of Congressional Democrats.
At the end of the Bush administration, the cauldron began bubbling over with a horrific stench. The choice was between letting it blow like a volcano, wreaking havoc everywhere, or purchasing the world's most expensive pressure valve in the form of a federal bailout, sending the worst of the toxic gases into a huge, red deficit balloon meant to contain the damage.
The damage that began to unfold, however, was very real. People, their families and communities everywhere began to experience financial disaster first hand. Voters with previously comfortable political ideologies began to see things differently. People who had never voted before suddenly found a reason to line up in record numbers. And they weren't voting the issues. They were voting mortgages and milk money.

The McPalin debacle was less about "darn-tootin'" Sarah Sixpack and the Aging Mannequin than it was about a rare new thing in Washington--accountability. People don't want policies. They want problem solvers. There was a whiff of hope that Barack Obama might just be one of those, and that he might be able to bring in some folks who could solve problems. People didn't want Hillary because she was part of the Previous Mess. People didn't want McCain because he was a part of the most Recent Mess and couldn't remember how many homes he owned while so many other people were losing the only one they had.
The Obama Administration's biggest mistake has been not to recognize just how important it was for him and his people to get in there and start solving problems on a grand scale. Perhaps it was unfair to expect this of a comparatively inexperienced leader. Sadly, real change was never going to happen as long a the existing apparatus remained untouched. Bitterly partisan players like Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi kept their positions of privilege. Obama began peopling his administration with long-term DC operatives. Essentially, except for a few new faces, the top power deck in DC received only a modest shuffle.
One year later the dimensions of the war have scarcely subsided. Federal initiatives are as intrusive as ever with no sign of shrinkage. The battle over Health Care devolved into a lobbying brawl with quibbling and ideological barn burning rather than solutions. The federal bailout with its gargantuan price tag is being diverted, along with many other vital national elements, offshore to the more forward-thinking Chinese. (Oh, baby! What a day it will be when they start calling in the note!)
But voter attitudes are the same now as they were last year, and a desperate populace is no respecter of parties. The Massachusetts voter turnout was down 20 points from the general election. The highest concentrations of voters were in the regions with the highest unemployment rates, and they voted Republican. Why? Because Massachusetts isn't liberal anymore? Don't kid yourself. They voted Republican because their governing party failed to get their jobs back. They voted Republican because they were immediately furious with the people who looked most responsible. That was the lesson of '08. That's the lesson of '09. And it's about to be the lesson of '10.

Republican Party operatives better learn from this, as well as their Democratic counterparts. It's not about ideals or principals or party platforms. It's about a chicken in the pot and some bacon in the fridge. It's about Populism, just as it was in the early 20th Century when similar economic times struck the nation.
Get a clue. If Barry doesn't sober up and start solving problems, the next greatest politician in Washington will be the next best Populist. Chances are the former Cosmo centerfold from Mass will not be that guy. But somebody will be. One shudders to think of who.



Photo by Obama campaign